USAA Financial Planning Services has been asking folks what movie title best describes their holiday budget.
"It's a Wonderful Life," said 29% of 1,000 adults polled.
The National Retail Federation is forecasting a 1% decline over last year's not-so-happy holiday sales. Stores from Saks (SKS) to Target (TGT), Kohl's (KSS) and Wal-Mart (WMT) are also bracing for declines. Yet another 19% of folks polled by USAA about their holiday spending plans said, "Jingle All The Way."
There are always pessimists, though, in a nation plagued by double-digit unemployment.
Of those polled, 22% used the movie title "Surviving Christmas" to describe their holiday budget; 15% said "Mixed Nuts," 8% said "Scrooged," and 6% apparently haven't been to the movies lately and answered, "don't know."
Put Target's chief financial officer, Doug Scovanner, down for "Christmas with the Kranks."
"Sell-side analysts are somewhat more optimistic across most of our industry than we believe is warranted in light of the harsh realities of the current environment," he said in an earnings conference call earlier this week.
OK, so maybe he's just trying to curb "The Invention of Lying."
Sears (SHLD) and Kmart are so scared they started Black Friday sales promotions three weeks before Thanksgiving, expanding like never before "The Nightmare Before Christmas."
Some retailers have said they won't discount as deeply as last year, when they needed to clear inventories. Some even warned they may even run out of items. But given vicious retail competition, a return to big blowouts is as recurring a thing as "Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel."
USAA's survey says holiday shoppers increasingly will refrain from using credit cards this year to avoid sequels of "The Hangover" and "My Life in Ruins." Of those surveyed, 85% said they plan to use cash.
The "High Road to China" is the path these dollars will take.
Between January and August of this year, the U.S. imported from China $28.6 million worth of fake Christmas trees, $470.3 million worth of Christmas ornaments, and $4.3 billion worth of toys, according to foreign trade statistics from the Census Bureau.
Online sales are expected to rise this year, stimulating yet another industry.
"Cybercriminals appear to be gearing up for a lucrative holiday season," said Mike Kronenberg of Internet security firm Webroot, Boulder, Colo.
"Phishing Trojans, which can steal credit-card numbers, passwords and other information," are on the rise, Kronenberg said.
Phishing Trojans? What movie title best describes these practices? "Meet the Fockers," "Inglorious Basterds," or maybe from the perpetrators' perspective, it's just "Capitalism: A Love Story."
The movie title I would associate with my own holiday outlook is "2012."
If the world indeed ends on Dec. 21, 2012, this is one of only three Christmases left.
What better way to say you care than a stack of cases of canned food?
Santa Claus is already trying to hoard swine flu vaccines.
The Associated Press reports that Ernest Berger, president of a group called Santa America, has asked a congressman to designate Santas as a priority group for vaccine supplies.
Berger complains that in addition to being around potentially infected children, most Santas are overweight, and that obesity is a risk factor for swine flu.
But why should all these mall imposters be first in line? The real Santa would have no fear of a child's runny nose. Who do these fakers think they are? Wall Street bankers?
Didn't they read that Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) were already among the first employers in New York to receive vaccines from public health authorities while millions across the nation waited patiently in line at clinics and hospitals?
Reminds me of yet another movie title, "Bad Santa."
(Al's Emporium, written by Dow Jones Newswires columnist Al Lewis, offers commentary and analysis on a wide range of business subjects through an unconventional perspective. Contact Al at al.lewis@dowjones.com or tellittoal.com)
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