Jobs Report Likely to Kill New Year's Buzz

The calendar may turn but we probably won’t see much difference for the economy in economic reports due in the first week of 2009.

The highlight -- or low point -- will be Friday’s report on non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate. The payroll data could be the worst since the recession began in December 2007.

While the consensus forecasts suggest we will see a decline of 478,000 payroll jobs in December (the precision is remarkable); other data suggest the jobs decline could exceed the loss of 533,000 jobs in November, which had been the largest payroll decline since December 1974, when the economy shed 602,000 jobs.

One key indicator was the revised report Thursday of continuing claims for unemployment insurance which showed that from mid-November to mid-December the number of individuals collecting unemployment insurance -- including those collecting benefits under extension programs enacted by Congress -- increased by a staggering 1.2 million, underscoring the view employers have essentially shut down their hiring windows.

The sharp increase in those collecting benefits does support the forecast that the unemployment rate will increase to as high as 7.0% in next Friday’s report.

The total of about 4.8 million people collecting unemployment insurance in mid-November was far less than the 10.3 million counted as unemployed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The boost in those receiving benefits suggests total unemployment could increase significantly in the numbers to be released. In December 1982 -- in the midst of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression -- unemployment, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was just under 12.1 million, with 2.8 million people collecting unemployment insurance.

The expected bad news Friday will accelerate and increase the pressure on the incoming Obama administration to put the finishing touches on its stimulus program which, while it has to be job-centered, also has to be housing centered as data in the week just ended suggested. Falling interest rates -- and prices -- have done little to stop the free-fall of home values.

Reports from two sources in two straight weeks -- the Federal Housing Finance Agency on December 23 and Case-Shiller on December 30 both showed continued declines in home values -- albeit those data points end in October. But the report from the National Association of Realtors showed sales of existing single family homes continued to fall in November even though the median price continued sliding -- to its lowest level since March 2004.

And, weekly data from the Mortgage Bankers Association on application activity show no appreciable change in demand for mortgages to buy homes -- a 12% increase -- in the same period during which the interest rate for a one-year adjustable rate loan dropped from 5.25% to 4.95%. Purchase loan applications are down almost 20% from a year ago when the interest rate was 5.45%.

While interest rate and loan amount are the determinants of the monthly payment feeding into the decision by would-be buyers, the lender has to be concerned about the borrower’s ability to pay -- which is why the announcement by GMAC last week that it was lowered its minimum credit score to 621 may not be the magic bullet General Motors (GM) is hoping for to revive its sales and balance sheet.

A credit score tells a lender about a borrower’s disposition not ability to pay. Making loans to borrowers with weak credit was one of the reasons for defaults and the ensuing credit crunch -- and that was when the loans were made against collateral without wheels!

Jobs will dominate the data in the coming week, interrupted by reports on November construction spending and December motor vehicle sales, November factory orders and the December ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey, among others. Those reports will all feed into forecasts for fourth-quarter gross domestic product to be reported at the end of the month.

Monday, Jan. 5Motor Vehicle Sales (Dec)November actual (Domestic): 10.2 million units (DOWN 3.6%)December consensus (Domestic): 10.1 million units (DOWN 1.0%)Construction Spending (Nov)October actual: $1,072.6 billion (DOWN 1.2%)November consensus: DOWN 1.3%Tuesday, Jan. 6Factory Orders (Nov)Total orders:October actual: DOWN 5.1%November consensus: DOWN 3.5%Ex-Transportation:October actual: DOWN 4.2%November consensus: UNCHANGEDISM Non-Manufacturing Survey (Dec)November actual: 37.3 DOWN 7.1December consensus 37.0 DOWN 0.3Pending Home Sales Index (Nov)October actual: 88.9 DOWN 0.6November consensus: 88.5Federal Open Market Committee MinutesMeeting of December 15-16New Target Fed Funds Rate 0-0.25%, DOWN 1.00%Wednesday, Jan. 7Challenger Layoffs (December)November actual: 181,671 UP 68,787No December consensusMBA Application Index (Week ended: January 2)Week ended December 26: 1,245.7 UP 0.02%Four-week moving average: 959.9 UP 24.3%No January 2 consensusADP Employment Report December / BLS Private sector)November actual: DOWN 250,000 / DOWN 540,000No November consensusConference Board Online Help Wanted Advertising (Dec)November actual: 4,369,200 DOWN 70,200No December consensusThursday, Jan. 8Unemployment Insurance Claims (Week ended January 3)December 27 actual: 492,000 DOWN 94,000January 3 consensus: 550,000Consumer Credit Outstanding (Nov)October actual: DOWN $3.6 billionNovember consensus: UP $0.5 billionFriday, Jan. 9Employment Situation (Dec)Change in payroll employmentNovember actual: DOWN 533,000December consensus: DOWN 478,000Unemployment RateNovember actual: 6.7% UP from 6.5% in OctoberDecember consensus: 7.0%Average work weekNovember actual: 33.5 hours DOWN from 33.6 in OctoberDecember consensus: 33.5 hoursAverage hourly earningsNovember actual: $18.30 UP 7 cents , 0.2%, from OctoberDecember consensus: $18.34 UP 4 cents, 0.2%Wholesale Inventories and Sales (Nov) InventoriesOctober actual: DOWN 1.1%November consensus: DOWN 0.8%SalesOctober actual: DOWN 4.1%No November consensus

Mark Lieberman is the senior economist for the Fox Business Network. Prior to joining FOX, he served as first vice president and manager of economic analysis and research at Washington Mutual in New York. Before that, he served as senior vice president at Dime Savings Bank of New York (which was later acquired by Washington Mutual), where he specialized in credit and risk management. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the New York Association for Business Economics. He has a degree in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

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